Gus Edwards Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-519).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -517 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -519.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 9th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 45.3% red zone run rate.
Gus Edwards has rushed for 0.75 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in football among running backs (96th percentile).
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles grade out as the worst DT corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Gus Edwards to be much less involved in his offense's running game near the end zone this week (23.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (35.7% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-least TDs in football (0.50 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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