Gus Edwards Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 4, 2022 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Gus Edwards Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+128/-173).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -173.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 44.9% red zone run rate.
Gus Edwards has received 40.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
The Denver Broncos defensive ends profile as the 3rd-worst DE corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 30.36 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least TDs in football (0.55 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.

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