Gus Edwards Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
Gus Edwards has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (30.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (9.6%).
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Ravens profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.
Gus Edwards grades out as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL among running backs, completing a remarkable 100.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Ravens.
Gus Edwards checks in as one of the worst pass-game RBs this year, averaging a lowly 0.8 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 19th percentile among running backs.
This year, the imposing Seahawks defense has allowed a measly 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.