Gus Edwards Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-260/+190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -260.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are projected by the projection model to call 66.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Chargers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.5 per game) this year.
Gus Edwards's 29.7% Route% this year indicates a noteworthy growth in his passing offense workload over last year's 9.6% rate.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 53.9% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
With a feeble 0.8 adjusted receptions per game (19th percentile) this year, Gus Edwards rates among the worst pass-catching running backs in the NFL.

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