Gus Edwards Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
Gus Edwards has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (30.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (9.6%).
When talking about air yards, Gus Edwards ranks in the lofty 76th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a superb 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Ravens profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Ravens.
This year, the imposing Seahawks defense has allowed a measly 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.

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