Gus Edwards Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 13, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+124/-158).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Gus Edwards's 27.5% Route% this season signifies a a significant gain in his passing attack workload over last season's 9.6% mark.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (83.3%) versus RBs since the start of last season (83.3%).
The Titans linebackers project as the 6th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

With a 4-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 62.8 total plays in this contest: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week.
Gus Edwards has been among the worst running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a mere 0.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 3rd percentile among RBs.
The Titans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.63 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the 9th-fewest in the league.

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