Gus Edwards Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Gus Edwards Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The projections expect the Ravens to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Gus Edwards's 28.1% Route Participation Rate this year illustrates a a noteable progression in his pass attack volume over last year's 9.6% rate.
The Steelers pass defense has not been good when opposing RBs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 8.32 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.7% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
With a subpar 0.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (2nd percentile) this year, Gus Edwards places among the weakest RB receiving threats in football.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (73.9%) to RBs since the start of last season (73.9%).
As it relates to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Pittsburgh's unit has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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