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Gus Edwards Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/+100).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -130.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.Opposing offenses have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game versus the 49ers defense this year: 4th-most in football.Gus Edwards's 26.8% Route Participation% this season illustrates a meaningful progression in his passing attack workload over last season's 9.6% figure.When it comes to air yards, Gus Edwards ranks in the towering 88th percentile among running backs this year, totaling an astounding 2.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).The Ravens O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the 10th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 57.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The model projects the Ravens to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.Gus Edwards grades out as one of the worst pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a mere 6.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 25th percentile among running backs.The 49ers pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. RBs this year, giving up 5.18 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, San Francisco's unit has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.
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