Gus Edwards Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 2:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
The model projects the Ravens as the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The projections expect Gus Edwards to earn 13.7 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
Out of all RBs, Gus Edwards grades out in the 76th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 35.2% of the workload in his offense's running game.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens offensive approach to lean 2.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
The Detroit Lions linebackers project as the 4th-best LB corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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