Gus Edwards Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4.5 points.
The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Ravens to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
In this week's contest, Gus Edwards is predicted by the predictive model to slot into the 78th percentile among running backs with 13.2 rush attempts.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Pittsburgh's group of DTs has been terrible this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Gus Edwards has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 44.2% of snaps vs just 26.4% last year.

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