Gus Edwards Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+106/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to run on 52.0% of their downs: the highest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projection model to run 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.

Favors Under

The Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Gus Edwards has been a more important option in his team's offense this season, playing on 42.8% of snaps compared to just 26.4% last season.
The Los Angeles defensive tackles project as the 5th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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