Greg Dulcich Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Greg Dulcich

TE · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Greg Dulcich Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties profile as the 6th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has afforded their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (68.5%) vs. TEs this year (68.5%).
The Los Angeles Rams defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.