Greg Dulcich Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Greg Dulcich

NFL · Player Props

Greg Dulcich

TE · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Greg Dulcich Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-100/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will be rolling with backup QB Brett Rypien in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.79 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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