Greg Dortch Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Greg Dortch

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 6:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Greg Dortch Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+314/-572).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a heavy 10-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 64.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Greg Dortch to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the end zone this week (12.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Opposing teams have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-least in football.
Greg Dortch has notched a puny 13.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 23rd percentile among wideouts.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.