Gerald Everett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Gerald Everett

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Gerald Everett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+175/-240).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is implied by the Bears being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
The Bears rank as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 66.1% pass rate.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.0 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
With a sizeable 13.9% Target Rate (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Gerald Everett places among the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.
Gerald Everett checks in as one of the best tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 3.2 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Texans, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 32.3 per game) since the start of last season.
The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all air attack metrics across the board.