Gerald Everett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Gerald Everett

NFL · Player Props

Gerald Everett

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Gerald Everett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.3% pass rate.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The model projects Gerald Everett to accrue 3.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Gerald Everett's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 69.2% to 81.3%.
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, New England's unit has been lousy this year, projecting as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
Gerald Everett's 18.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 28.2.
Gerald Everett's play as a receiver has worsened this season, totaling a mere 2.8 adjusted receptions vs 3.8 last season.

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