George Pickens Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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George Pickens

NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2024

Updated Oct 20, 2024 11:56 PM EST

Analysis

George Pickens Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may drop.
This week, George Pickens is projected by the model to position himself in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.8 targets.
George Pickens's 75.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 62.5.
With a stellar 4.2 adjusted catches per game (78th percentile) this year, George Pickens ranks among the top WRs in the league in the league.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 126.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.
This year, the imposing New York Jets defense has conceded a measly 58.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-best rate in football.
The New York Jets linebackers profile as the best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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