George Pickens Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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George Pickens

NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

George Pickens Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+135/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
The predictive model expects George Pickens to notch 9.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
George Pickens's 60.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 44.8.

Favors Under

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Steelers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
George Pickens's 53.3% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a an impressive diminishment in his receiving skills over last season's 62.5% rate.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been excellent this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

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