George Pickens Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-160/+130).
Key Factors
Favors Over
The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
George Pickens has run a route on 87.6% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Favors Under
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
George Pickens has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 58.6% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 21st percentile among wide receivers
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.4%) to WRs this year (62.4%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in football since the start of last season.