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George Pickens

George Pickens Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers

George Pickens Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+132/-166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

George Pickens has run a route on 88.4% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.

George Pickens has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a mere 52.1% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 9th percentile among wide receivers

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