George Pickens Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

George Pickens Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-137/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
The predictive model expects George Pickens to total 6.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to WRs.
George Pickens has notched far more air yards this year (98.0 per game) than he did last year (78.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point surge in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, George Pickens has been more heavily relied on in his offense's pass attack.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a measly 54.5 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Green Bay Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.1 per game) this year.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.
George Pickens's 52.3% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a noteworthy regression in his receiving talent over last year's 62.5% mark.