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George Pickens

George Pickens Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers

George Pickens Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+276/-468).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +298 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +276.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects George Pickens to be a more important option in his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (17.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).

George Pickens has put up a monstrous 90.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among wideouts.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

George Pickens has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 58.6% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 21st percentile among wide receivers

George Pickens grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.4%) to WRs this year (62.4%).

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

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