George Pickens Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

George Pickens Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+360/-580).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects George Pickens to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the end zone this week (12.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Completion% in football (68.3%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (68.3%).

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
George Pickens has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football, hauling in just 38.4% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 5th percentile among WRs
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on just 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.