George Pickens Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

George Pickens Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+277/-472).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -447 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -472.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
George Pickens has compiled a monstrous 78.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among wideouts.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has conceded the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.5%) versus WRs this year (69.5%).
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 123.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
George Pickens has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 61.4% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 21st percentile among wide receivers
The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends grade out as the 9th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.