George Pickens Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

George Pickens Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+226/-353).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -342 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -353.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects George Pickens to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (18.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.4% in games he has played).
George Pickens has compiled a whopping 85.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among WRs.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 6th-most passing touchdowns in the league to wide receivers: 1.08 per game this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
George Pickens has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 61.9% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile among wideouts
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.