George Pickens Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

George Pickens Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-450).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects George Pickens to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the end zone this week (21.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.8% in games he has played).
George Pickens has accrued a monstrous 86.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among wide receivers.
The New Orleans Saints defense has allowed the 9th-most passing touchdowns in the league to WRs: 0.89 per game this year.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
George Pickens has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 61.2% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 23rd percentile among wide receivers
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.