George Pickens Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

George Pickens Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+267/-446).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +274 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +267.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.4 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 2nd-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a measly 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.