George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-188/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -146 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -188.

Key Factors

Favors Over

George Kittle has run a route on 86.6% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Our trusted projections expect George Kittle to garner 5.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
George Kittle comes in as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an excellent 3.2 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
This year, the shaky Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded a massive 79.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Cincinnati's group of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see just 120.9 total plays called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 7th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (just 53.9 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Bengals defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

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