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George Kittle
NFL · Player Props
George Kittle
TE · San Francisco 49ers
Receptions
Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023 Updated Oct 24, 2023 12:01 AM UTC
NFL Props George Kittle Receptions

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+135/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -165.

Favors Over
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The model projects George Kittle to earn 6.2 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
  • This year, the poor Vikings pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 77.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the largest rate in the NFL.
Favors Under
  • This week's line implies a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
  • The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.
  • With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, George Kittle has been used much less in his offense's air attack.
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