George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 24, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+135/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The model projects George Kittle to earn 6.2 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
This year, the poor Vikings pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 77.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the largest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, George Kittle has been used much less in his offense's air attack.

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