George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 22, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -154 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
George Kittle has run a route on 88.4% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to accrue 6.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle has been among the best pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.9 receptions per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.
The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (75.1%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (75.1%).

Favors Under

The 49ers are a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.7 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.