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George Kittle

George Kittle Receptions
Player Prop Week 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +122 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.

With an exceptional 88.9% Route Participation% (99th percentile) this year, George Kittle places as one of the tight ends with the most usage in football.

The leading projections forecast George Kittle to notch 6.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among TEs.

George Kittle comes in as one of the best pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a remarkable 3.9 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the 49ers as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.1 plays per game.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 25.8 per game) this year.

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the worst in the league this year.

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