George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense results when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
George Kittle has run a route on 88.5% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to notch 5.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle has been among the top TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.9 receptions per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a big 7.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
George Kittle's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.7% to 51.0%.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (67.6%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (67.6%).