George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects George Kittle to accrue 5.9 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.
George Kittle's 50.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 42.2.
With an exceptional 4.2 adjusted receptions per game (87th percentile) this year, George Kittle ranks among the best TEs in the pass game in the NFL.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (78.4%) vs. TEs this year (78.4%).

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the 49ers being an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 50.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have only 125.9 plays on offense called: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the importance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.

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