George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-175/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in football (43.0 per game) this year.
The projections expect George Kittle to accumulate 6.0 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point gain in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, George Kittle has been more heavily incorporated in his team's air attack.
George Kittle checks in as one of the best pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an exceptional 4.2 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.
The Eagles pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (78.6%) to TEs this year (78.6%).

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are projected by the projection model to call just 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the 49ers ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year.