George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

reorder

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
The model projects George Kittle to accrue 6.0 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, George Kittle has been more prominently used in his team's passing attack.
George Kittle ranks as one of the best TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 4.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.
George Kittle's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 74.7% to 78.0%.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored in this game, implying much more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.6 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year.