George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+175/-240).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -240.

Key Factors

Favors Over

George Kittle has run a route on 89.4% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to notch 5.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle has been among the top pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.0 receptions per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has conceded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (73.7%) to TEs since the start of last season (73.7%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the 5th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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