George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to garner 5.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has been among the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 3.8 receptions per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.
George Kittle has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football among tight ends, catching a terrific 76.6% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 77th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
George Kittle's 36.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 46.2.