George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.0 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 4.0 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to total 5.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle has been among the leading pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an impressive 3.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers project as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.87 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
George Kittle's 35.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 46.2.