George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-162/+121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -158 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -162.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to accumulate 5.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
George Kittle has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 4.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the NFL (80.5%) to tight ends this year (80.5%).

Favors Under

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
George Kittle's 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 51.1.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.

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