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George Kittle

George Kittle Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-162/+121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -158 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -162.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.
  • THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to accumulate 5.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
  • The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • George Kittle has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 4.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
  • The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the NFL (80.5%) to tight ends this year (80.5%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • George Kittle's 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 51.1.
  • The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.

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