George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a remarkable 83.3% Route Participation Rate (95th percentile) this year, George Kittle rates among the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the league.
The leading projections forecast George Kittle to accrue 5.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
With an excellent 7.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (75th percentile) this year, George Kittle has been among the best TEs in the pass game in the league in space.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 54.5% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 31.28 seconds per snap.
Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being called for in this game) generally cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.5 per game) this year.

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