George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-136/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
George Kittle has run a route on 88.1% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
The leading projections forecast George Kittle to total 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.
When it comes to air yards, George Kittle grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 41.0 per game.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 14.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
George Kittle's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.7% to 71.1%.
George Kittle's pass-catching efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a mere 7.86 yards-per-target compared to a 9.21 figure last year.