George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
The model projects George Kittle to accrue 6.0 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has totaled significantly more air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, George Kittle has been more prominently used in his team's passing attack.
George Kittle's 63.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season signifies a noteable progression in his receiving talent over last season's 49.0 rate.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored in this game, implying much more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.6 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year.