George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:46 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the NFL (43.2 per game) this year.
In this contest, George Kittle is anticipated by our trusted projection set to slot into the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.5 targets.
George Kittle has notched many more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
George Kittle's 47.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 42.2.
George Kittle has posted a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (56.0) this year than he did last year (49.0).

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average).
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the 49ers ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year.

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