George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:51 PM EST

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-143/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to accrue 7.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
George Kittle's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 75.6% to 86.3%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
George Kittle has posted quite a few less air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (58.0 per game).
George Kittle's 36.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 51.7.

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