George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to accumulate 4.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
George Kittle has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the league among tight ends, averaging a terrific 9.06 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 84th percentile.
George Kittle has been among the top TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging an impressive 6.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
George Kittle has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).
George Kittle's 34.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 46.2.
George Kittle has notched quite a few less receiving yards per game (45.0) this season than he did last season (57.0).

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