George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to accumulate 5.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
George Kittle has been among the most efficient receivers in football among tight ends, averaging a terrific 9.22 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 90th percentile.
George Kittle has been among the leading tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a terrific 6.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
George Kittle has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (55.0 per game).
George Kittle's 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 51.1.

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