George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 22, 2022 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-175/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to earn 5.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
George Kittle has been among the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 47.0 yards per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are an enormous 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
George Kittle has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (40.0 per game) than he did last season (58.0 per game).

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