George Kittle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-310).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -309 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -310.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
George Kittle has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 21.7% this year, which ranks in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
George Kittle's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 75.6% to 81.0%.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 4th-worst safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 57.1 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
George Kittle has accrued far fewer air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (58.0 per game).
George Kittle's 40.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 51.7.

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