George Kittle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+195/-275).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
George Kittle has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 88th percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has totaled a monstrous 52.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle's 48.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 96th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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