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George Kittle

George Kittle Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-302).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +231 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +198.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in football.

George Kittle has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.6% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 87th percentile among TEs.

George Kittle has accrued a colossal 54.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among tight ends.

George Kittle's 49.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 96th percentile for tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Carolina Panthers linebackers rank as the 4th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in football since the start of last season.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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